AFTER A CENTURY OF CRUDE, IT’S TIME TO REFINE OUR VISION: The 20th Century can be viewed through any of the three great trends of our time — economic growth, social progress, and environmental damage. But a fourth trend — growing energy use —underlies each of these, literally fueling the incredible journey we’ve been on in the last 100 years. And changes in the landscape of energy may well trigger a whole new journey for humanity. The legendary actor and narrator Peter Coyote tells the story of our oil journey.
I am not anti-gas; neither is Berman. What concerns him, and me, are the overblown claims about the potential for shale gas and the poor quality of both technical and financial information about its production. We don’t yet know how much of the estimated gas resources will be economically recoverable or whether the projected production rates for some wells might be off by a factor of 10. We might have a 100-year supply of gas, or we might have an 11-year supply. We might realize economic and environmental benefits by transitioning trucking and coal-fired power generation to natural gas, or we might do so only to find ourselves out on a limb far more economically dangerous than the current peak and impending decline of world oil supply. We simply don’t know, and we may not know for years to come.




![The Australian Daily Telegraph published today a story on a leaked government report (BITRE 117) which (optimistically) calculated peak oil around 2017, followed by permanent decline.
[Energy Bulletin posted important extracts from the report: HERE.]
The report can be downloaded here:
http://ianmcpherson.com/blog/audio/Australian_Govt_Oil_supply_trends.pdf
Thanks to the watchful eye of ASPO Australia.](http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ly7qpxSReP1r9xzypo1_400.jpg)